Short and Longterm Time Dependencies of Socio-Economic Dimensions after Catastrophies

Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Abstract


We investigate the question about short and medium term consequences due to natural disaster events and respective time-dependencies. Consequences are estimated by comparing the actual economic performance with a counterfactual projected one using an econometric approach. Time-dependencies and multi risks come into play via suitable selections of indicators based on past events from relevant databases. It is found that no general conclusions about the combined (integrated) effects over some years due to disasters can be given without any information of the resilience of the system which is shocked. In other words, there can be no, positive as well as negative long term effects experienced depending on the resilience of the system before the shock. Importantly, resilience itself was treated as path dependent and therefore included past experiences in disaster events for the respective cases. Regarding the question as to which variables could explain socio-economic resilience dimensions the most it was found that not only loss dimensions play a significant role, but also the path of resilience in the past which led to the pre-disaster situation as well as the possibilities of multi hazard situations.

Keywords


Disasters, time dependencies; macro-economy, econometric approach; empirical analysis

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