Damage Assessment in Tourism Caused by an Earthquake Disaster

Taiki Nishimura, Kyoto University, Yoshio Kajitani, Kyoto University, Hirokazu Tatano, Kyoto University

Abstract


Natural disasters such as large-scale earthquakes can often reduce the number of tourists to a region, even in areas that suffered less damage. The belief is that this reduction in tourism is the result of psychological reasons such as people’s uncertainty about levels of service, and so, they prefer to avoid traveling to these regions. However, the reduction in tourism after an earthquake and the characteristics of this reduction have not been quantified or fully investigated. As a result, the extent of the reduction in tourism, how long an earthquake continues to affect tourism, and what areas are affected has yet to be clearly demonstrated. To better understand these losses, this study developed a framework by which we can estimate the periods of loss and the number of people who cancel their travel plans to affected areas. This framework is based on a time series analysis and is applied to five recent earthquake disasters. The results demonstrate that the disaster impacts both the disaster area and surrounding areas but that, in all cases, the numbers of tourists return to the original trends within at most a year.


Keywords


time series analysis; statistical test; natural disaster; tourism

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