An assessment of nuclear power shutdown in Japan using the computable general equilibrium model

Masato Yamazaki, Nagoya University, Shiro Takeda


Following the Great East Japan earthquake and the resulting tsunami, the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station has caused public anxiety with respect to existing nuclear power reactors in Japan. This has made it difficult for the local government to give permission to allow the suspended nuclear power reactors to resume activity after their scheduled check up. Japan would have to balance its electricity supply and demand with zero or very few operating nuclear power reactors in 2012. In that case, the gap between electricity supply and demand would have to be closed using high-cost fossil fuel power generation. The purpose of this study is to assess the economy-wide impacts of total nuclear power shutdown in Japan using a multi-regional, multi-sectoral, static computable general equilibrium model. The results of this study indicate that immediate total nuclear power shutdown in Japan would have a considerable negative impact on the country’s economy and carbon dioxideemissions. The negative economic impacts would differ among regions depending on their nuclear dependency, and could further accelerate the rise in regional economic disparity.


Nuclear power shutdown; Japan; CGE model

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